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As hopes fade for a major stimulus, here’s what it means for the fragile economy

first_imgThe HEROES Act that the House passed in May calls for $3 trillion in spending across a variety of areas, from unemployment benefits to student loan relief, rent and mortgage assistance and testing and tracing programs related to the coronavirus pandemic.- Advertisement – – Advertisement – As the question remains over who will capture the hotly contested presidential race, one casualty quickly emerging from fallout is the massive stimulus package Democrats were hoping to get to boost the economy.A blue-wave victory in Tuesday’s elections was expected to cement funding as high as $3 trillion.Instead, the likelihood that the Senate will stay in Republican hands, combined with a presidential race that at least is tilting to Democrat Joe Biden, likely translates into something smaller – or no deal at all.- Advertisement – The U.S. Capitol is seen in the morning on November 4, 2020 in Washington, DC. The nation awaits the results of a historic presidential election between President Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden with swing states still too close to call.Al Drago | Getty Images Republicans, though, seek a smaller, more tailored approach aimed mostly at enhanced help for displaced workers and limited aid elsewhere, to the tune of less than $1 trillion.With the mixed bag of results off the election, Wall Street consensus quickly formed around a package that would be closer to what the GOP is proposing, with uncertainty over when it could get passed.“We’re still likely to see a fiscal support package, but I would suspect the total size to be no more than $1 trillion,” said Steve Friedman, senior macroeconomist at MackKay Shields. “We’re much lower now in this divided government scenario.”What it means for the economyThe stakes around the size of the stimulus are considerable with the economy on uncertain footing heading into the winter.While GDP rose at a 33.1% annualized pace in the third quarter, employment gains are slowing and overall growth is expected to pull back. The economy is still in a technical recession that began in February, and whether negative growth returns could be contingent on how much more fiscal juice is needed and when it arrives.“If you just didn’t do anything, it would clearly be a tremendous toll on many, many households, but it wouldn’t necessarily cause a double-dip recession,” Friedman said. “It would just slow the pace of the recovery in an aggregate sense.”The political rancor comes at a time of heightened concern over the coronavirus spread.Daily case growth has been around the highest of the pandemic, and hospitalization rates are climbing as well. European nations are again shuttering businesses to battle Covid-19, and if that should come to the U.S., it would complicate the recovery.“It’s a little bit unsettling because of course we’re all watching what’s going on with Covid-19 and in Europe seeing the containment measures coming in,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING Investment Management. “We could be entering a period where we could be talking about negative growth once again in the U.S. That political backdrop doesn’t make it easy to see a swift fiscal response to this.”Lacking action from the fiscal side, financial markets again could turn their eyes to the Federal Reserve for more monetary help.Though the central bank’s arsenal is somewhat limited, it still has some weapons to deploy. The Fed could increase its monthly asset purchases and extend the duration of the bonds it is acquiring as part of more aggressive quantitative easing. It also could use stronger guidance about what it will take to raise rates, and use its purchases to control the yield curve.What the Fed could doThe Fed concludes its two-day meeting Thursday. Markets don’t expect much in terms of action, but Chairman Jerome Powell could indicate what measures if any officials are considering to aid in the recovery.“The Fed could consider easing terms to facilitate the flow of credit. The Fed could also ramp up the QE program, buying Treasuries and [mortgage-backed securities] at a faster rate, as well as corporate credit as needed, particularly if it sees concerns over market liquidity,” Michelle Meyer, U.S. economist at Bank of America Global Research, said in a recent note. “The Fed has tools and will use them, in our view.”Meyer said a Biden victory combined with a split Congress likely would see stimulus of $500 billion to $1 trillion “passed after inauguration but with some delay. There is also some chance of continued gridlock in this scenario.”Markets didn’t seem to mind any of it Wednesday, rallying strongly despite the uncertainty hanging over the election.Prospects of the kind of gridlock that Wall Street seems to prefer combined with continued likelihood of some form of stimulus helped fuel the strong move higher.“What the market tends not to like the most is when you have one-party controlling the presidency, the House and the Senate. That blue wave that was talked about earlier clearly is not going to happen,” said Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab. “Markets have the tendency to move more on what they expect than what actually happens. Some of what has kept the market buoyant is the continued commentary from Nancy Pelosi and Steve Mnuchin that they’re still taking and still negotiating.” – Advertisement – “That’s the most dangerous arrangement of variables from an economic perspective, precisely because it makes the stimulus less likely,” said Eric Winograd, senior economist at Alliance Bernstein. “The economy still needs stimulus. The way things are going now is that it’s unlikely it will get stimulus and certainly it won’t get large stimulus.”House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have been representing their respective sides in negotiations that occasionally show promise but mostly reflect just how far apart the two sides are when it comes to the extent of help needed.last_img read more

Syracuse started the season with 7 defenders, now it has only 4

first_img Comments Facebook Twitter Google+ Published on January 30, 2019 at 11:11 pm Contact Arabdho: armajumd@syr.edu | @aromajumder center_img On Jan. 29, down to four active defenseman against No. 6 Cornell, Syracuse head coach Paul Flanagan asked Logan Hicks to play the position she gave up two years prior. Originally a defender, Hicks focused on her new role as junior right winger this season. She had to switch because the Orange didn’t have enough defenders to fill its usual three lines.Hicks kept things simple. She cleared pucks quickly, angled skaters away from the net and didn’t take risks. The defense held Cornell— the ninth-best offense in the country (3.24 goals per game) — to two scores in the first two periods. But in the final 20 minutes, everyone was “gassed,” Flanagan said, leading to mental mistakes and three unanswered Big Red goals.Syracuse (6-18-2, 6-5-1 College Hockey America) has been hobbled by injuries this season, losing three defenders to injury. Dakota Derrer sustained a lower body injury on Nov. 10 against Penn State, ending her career, Flanagan said. Lindsay Eastwood has no timetable for return with an illness and Kristen Siermachesky was hit into the boards from behind against Penn State on Jan. 26, leaving the Orange with four healthy defenders for most of that contest. Flanagan adjusted without major changes to his system, rotating Hicks to the back against Cornell, and that’s likely to continue until Eastwood or Siermachesky comes back.“I thought our kids did a good job, and we only had four defensemen, so we asked a lot of those four,” Flanagan said following the Penn State matchup.AdvertisementThis is placeholder textAnna Henderson | Digital Design EditorFlanagan kept his defense fresh by rotating the five players in the last two matchups. Syracuse averages 5.1 penalties a game, but committed only one against Penn State and three against Cornell. The emergence of junior Allie Olnowich and more consistency from freshman Shelby Calof have helped the Orange secure their defensive depth.Olnowich started as the seventh defender this season, but against Cornell, she started alongside senior captain Allie Munroe.Now, Olnowich’s ability, that Flanagan said she’s always had, is standing out. She’s an “intuitive” player when it comes to decision making. Olnowich is also the most disciplined player on the ice for the Orange, Flanagan said. The lack of discipline has lost them games this season. Olnowich has committed just two penalties, the fewest out of players with consistent ice time.Syracuse’s forwards have helped with SU’s recent success, too. Their responsibility on the defensive side of the ice grew with the injuries, and two-way players like Lauren Bellefontaine became essential. The freshman, who is third on the team in blocks, got in front of a career-high four shots against Penn State when Siermachesky went down, and she replicated her block total three days later against the Big Red.“It’s really helpful having the forwards get back and having them talk to you and being an outlet to get open makes it a lot easier,” Hicks said.Syracuse got the day off after facing Cornell to recover from three games in five days. Now, it won’t play again until Feb. 8. Even if Eastwood isn’t fit to return by that point, it gives Hicks time to acclimate to her old position.With just one day of practice before playing against Cornell, Flanagan didn’t have much advice for Hicks. He had no other options.last_img read more