Tag: 上海百花坊论坛

As hopes fade for a major stimulus, here’s what it means for the fragile economy

first_imgThe HEROES Act that the House passed in May calls for $3 trillion in spending across a variety of areas, from unemployment benefits to student loan relief, rent and mortgage assistance and testing and tracing programs related to the coronavirus pandemic.- Advertisement – – Advertisement – As the question remains over who will capture the hotly contested presidential race, one casualty quickly emerging from fallout is the massive stimulus package Democrats were hoping to get to boost the economy.A blue-wave victory in Tuesday’s elections was expected to cement funding as high as $3 trillion.Instead, the likelihood that the Senate will stay in Republican hands, combined with a presidential race that at least is tilting to Democrat Joe Biden, likely translates into something smaller – or no deal at all.- Advertisement – The U.S. Capitol is seen in the morning on November 4, 2020 in Washington, DC. The nation awaits the results of a historic presidential election between President Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden with swing states still too close to call.Al Drago | Getty Images Republicans, though, seek a smaller, more tailored approach aimed mostly at enhanced help for displaced workers and limited aid elsewhere, to the tune of less than $1 trillion.With the mixed bag of results off the election, Wall Street consensus quickly formed around a package that would be closer to what the GOP is proposing, with uncertainty over when it could get passed.“We’re still likely to see a fiscal support package, but I would suspect the total size to be no more than $1 trillion,” said Steve Friedman, senior macroeconomist at MackKay Shields. “We’re much lower now in this divided government scenario.”What it means for the economyThe stakes around the size of the stimulus are considerable with the economy on uncertain footing heading into the winter.While GDP rose at a 33.1% annualized pace in the third quarter, employment gains are slowing and overall growth is expected to pull back. The economy is still in a technical recession that began in February, and whether negative growth returns could be contingent on how much more fiscal juice is needed and when it arrives.“If you just didn’t do anything, it would clearly be a tremendous toll on many, many households, but it wouldn’t necessarily cause a double-dip recession,” Friedman said. “It would just slow the pace of the recovery in an aggregate sense.”The political rancor comes at a time of heightened concern over the coronavirus spread.Daily case growth has been around the highest of the pandemic, and hospitalization rates are climbing as well. European nations are again shuttering businesses to battle Covid-19, and if that should come to the U.S., it would complicate the recovery.“It’s a little bit unsettling because of course we’re all watching what’s going on with Covid-19 and in Europe seeing the containment measures coming in,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING Investment Management. “We could be entering a period where we could be talking about negative growth once again in the U.S. That political backdrop doesn’t make it easy to see a swift fiscal response to this.”Lacking action from the fiscal side, financial markets again could turn their eyes to the Federal Reserve for more monetary help.Though the central bank’s arsenal is somewhat limited, it still has some weapons to deploy. The Fed could increase its monthly asset purchases and extend the duration of the bonds it is acquiring as part of more aggressive quantitative easing. It also could use stronger guidance about what it will take to raise rates, and use its purchases to control the yield curve.What the Fed could doThe Fed concludes its two-day meeting Thursday. Markets don’t expect much in terms of action, but Chairman Jerome Powell could indicate what measures if any officials are considering to aid in the recovery.“The Fed could consider easing terms to facilitate the flow of credit. The Fed could also ramp up the QE program, buying Treasuries and [mortgage-backed securities] at a faster rate, as well as corporate credit as needed, particularly if it sees concerns over market liquidity,” Michelle Meyer, U.S. economist at Bank of America Global Research, said in a recent note. “The Fed has tools and will use them, in our view.”Meyer said a Biden victory combined with a split Congress likely would see stimulus of $500 billion to $1 trillion “passed after inauguration but with some delay. There is also some chance of continued gridlock in this scenario.”Markets didn’t seem to mind any of it Wednesday, rallying strongly despite the uncertainty hanging over the election.Prospects of the kind of gridlock that Wall Street seems to prefer combined with continued likelihood of some form of stimulus helped fuel the strong move higher.“What the market tends not to like the most is when you have one-party controlling the presidency, the House and the Senate. That blue wave that was talked about earlier clearly is not going to happen,” said Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab. “Markets have the tendency to move more on what they expect than what actually happens. Some of what has kept the market buoyant is the continued commentary from Nancy Pelosi and Steve Mnuchin that they’re still taking and still negotiating.” – Advertisement – “That’s the most dangerous arrangement of variables from an economic perspective, precisely because it makes the stimulus less likely,” said Eric Winograd, senior economist at Alliance Bernstein. “The economy still needs stimulus. The way things are going now is that it’s unlikely it will get stimulus and certainly it won’t get large stimulus.”House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have been representing their respective sides in negotiations that occasionally show promise but mostly reflect just how far apart the two sides are when it comes to the extent of help needed.last_img read more

Bernd Leno sends clear message to Bukayo Saka over Arsenal future

first_imgAdvertisement The teenager had another influential game, this time against Olympiacos (Picture: Getty)Bernd Leno wants Bukayo Saka to stay at Arsenal ‘for a very long time’ after the teenager played a starring role in the Gunners’ 1-0 win over Olympiacos in the Europa League.The north London club will take an away goal back to the Emirates next Thursday, with Alexandre Lacazette tucking home from close range after an inch-perfect pass from Saka.However, Arsenal risk losing the youngster – whose contract expires in 2021 – after talks over an extension hit a stumbling block, though Leno is in no doubt that he wants Saka to stay. Metro Sport ReporterThursday 20 Feb 2020 11:13 pmShare this article via facebookShare this article via twitterShare this article via messengerShare this with Share this article via emailShare this article via flipboardCopy link6.9kShares Advertisement Bernd Leno sends clear message to Bukayo Saka over Arsenal futurecenter_img Leno had a busy evening as he kept Olympiacos’ attackers at bay (Picture: Getty)Although Arsenal kept a clean sheet in Greece they were indebted to the reflexes of goalkeeper Bernd Leno and the German is happy with Arteta’s decision to play him in Europe.He added: ‘It’s my job to make saves. At the end when you have a clean sheet, I’m happy. We won this game and we have the away goal so we’re happy.‘I want to play all the games. We take this competition seriously. It’s another chance to win a trophy and qualify for the Champions League. I want to play all the games so I’m happy he’s decided I should.’MORE: Robin van Persie compares ‘world-class’ Bukayo Saka to Arsenal and Manchester United legendsMORE: Arsenal invincible Robert Pires raves about ‘revelation’ Gabriel Martinelli Saka’s brilliant pass produced the only goal of the game on Thursday night (Picture: Getty)Asked about the teenager after the game, Leno told BT Sport: ‘Bukayo is an outstanding player, hopefully he stays very long at Arsenal.AdvertisementAdvertisementADVERTISEMENT‘He is very important for us. I think today his cross was very good for Laca to score.‘We’re happy now we’ve got the advantage and the away goal. At home we want to beat them again and go through to the next round.’More: Arsenal FCArsenal flop Denis Suarez delivers verdict on Thomas Partey and Lucas Torreira movesThomas Partey debut? Ian Wright picks his Arsenal starting XI vs Manchester CityArsene Wenger explains why Mikel Arteta is ‘lucky’ to be managing ArsenalManager Mikel Arteta was also asked about Saka, saying: ‘We try to put him in the right position, surrounded by the right players in the right position.‘He’s not a full-back. He’s responded in the right way, he’s got a lot of courage. I’m very pleased with his performance.’ Commentlast_img read more

Santa Clara, Pepperdine meet in WCC quarters

first_imgSanta Clara, Pepperdine meet in WCC quarters Share This StoryFacebookTwitteremailPrintLinkedinRedditNo. 7 seed Santa Clara (20-12, 7-10) vs. No. 6 seed Pepperdine (15-15, 8-8)West Coast Conference Tourney Quarterfinals, Orleans Arena, Las Vegas; Friday, 11 p.m. ESTBOTTOM LINE: Santa Clara and Pepperdine are prepared to face off in the quarterfinals of the WCC tourney. In the regular season, Pepperdine won both of the head-to-head matchups. The teams last went at it on Feb. 6, when the Waves shot 50 percent from the field while limiting Santa Clara to just 45 percent en route to a 14-point victory. Associated Press For more AP college basketball coverage: https://apnews.com/Collegebasketball and http://twitter.com/AP_Top25___This was generated by Automated Insights, http://www.automatedinsights.com/ap, using data from STATS LLC, https://www.stats.comcenter_img LEADING THE WAY: The electric Colbey Ross is averaging 19.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 7.2 assists to lead the charge for the Waves. Kameron Edwards is also a key contributor, accounting for 15.9 points and 6.9 rebounds per game. The Broncos have been led by DJ Mitchell, who is averaging 10.6 points and 5.2 rebounds.CREATING OFFENSE: Ross has made or assisted on 56 percent of all Pepperdine field goals over the last three games. Ross has accounted for 19 field goals and 19 assists in those games.ACCOUNTING FOR ASSISTS: The Waves have recently used assists to create buckets more often than the Broncos. Pepperdine has 41 assists on 68 field goals (60.3 percent) across its past three games while Santa Clara has assists on 41 of 74 field goals (55.4 percent) during its past three games.DID YOU KNOW: Pepperdine has attempted the second-most free throws among all WCC teams. The Waves have averaged 19.8 foul shots per game this season.___ March 6, 2020last_img read more

UCL: Mourinho starts Baba Rahman for Chelsea v Maccabi Tel Aviv tonight

first_imgGhana defender Baba Abdul Rahman will make his Chelsea debut in their Champions League match against Maccabi Tel Aviv on Wednesday.Jose Mourinho, who had hinted at this a day earlier, named the former Augsburg star in his starting lineup.Chelsea have had a tepid start to the Barclays Premier League season and the Portuguese has been at a loss about the causes.Rahman, 21, was expensively bought from the German club in a £22m in August and has variously spoken of his determination to lock down a place for the Blues.This will be a bid deal for the Black Star, who has played at the highest level for Ghana in his meteoric career rise since playing in his home country’s third tier only a few years ago. Before now, his only Premier league experience has been a bench place as Chelsea beat West Brom. Rahman plays at left back in the game which starts at 1845 GMT.Chelsea team tonight v Maccabi Tel Aviv: Begovic; Azpilicueta, Zouma, Cahill (c), Baba Rahman; Loftus-Cheek, Fabregas; Willian, Oscar, Hazard; Remy. –Follow Gary on Twitter: @garyalsmith. Get more updates on Facebook/Twitter with the #JoySports hashtaglast_img read more